What was new on STAR Site?
January, 2003
January 29, 2003
"...Calm reaction of Russian President Vladimir Putin on U.S. decision to abandon the ABM Treaty of 1972 and signing SORT Treaty by him were unlikely motivated by new understanding the essence of nuclear deterrence in Valery Yarynich's interpretation. In new military and political situation, due to development of multi-echelone BMD by the US and offensive weapons reductions, these steps seem caused by the fact that one can ensure guaranteed adequacy of nuclear deterrence and state security within the frames of the SORT Treaty and at the same time not to rely upon a sense of an adversary only. The point is that in order to achieve this goal certain expenses to improve our strategic forces are required, which could have been avoided, if the U.S. remained within the frames of the 1972 ABM Treaty..." (Opinion: On Strategic Offence - Strategic Defense Problem, - in Russian, by Emid Ashratov, January 29, 2003; the author is Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, participant of negotiations on START Treaty between the U.S. and the Soviet Union).Ñommittees of the State Duma continue their work on the text of the draft federal law on ratification of the SORT treaty. Russian MFA press release expressed the conviction that the necessary prerequisites are there for the ratification of the treaty this spring (Russian MFA Press Release On Meeting of Working Group of State Duma of the Federal Assembly on Preparation of Draft Federal Law on Ratification of the SOR Treaty, January 21, 2003).
"...The new concept (of the development of Strategic Nuclear Forces -- E.M.) is in fact a temporary one. Its political meaning is to postpone the final decision on the prospects of SNF by ten years. After that, Russia in its relations with the West will have to shift to symbolic deterrence similar to the one employed by France and UK (more likely by inertia, than because of the real need), or, if the will and capability are there, to start rapid building of qualitatively new and very expensive SNF..."(Moving in a Nuclear Circle, - in Russian, by Sergey Sokut, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, January 24, 2003). See also today's interview with Commander of Strategic Rocket Forces Colonel-General Nikolay Solovtsov (Our "Satan" Will Be On Duty Longer, - in Russian, by Oleg Falichev, Krasnaya Zvezda, January 29, 2003) and our special section Current Status and Future of Russian Strategic Forces
In 2002, technical capabilities of the Russian ABM system increased due to putting into operation of two facilities, which are unique by their capabilities: "Volga" radar station in Baranovichi (Byelorussia) and "Okno" optoelectronic system in Nurek (Tajikistan): 30 Years Not a Limit, - in Russian, (by Dmitriy Litovkin, Izvestia, January 22, 2003)
Russian President Vladimir Putin does not exclude the possibility of Russian-US joint work on missile defenses. He made this statement at his meeting with Dr. Roald Sagdeev and Eisenhower Institute President Susan Eisenhower:
- Roald Sagdeev: ABM Pro et Contra, - in Russian, (by Natalia Yachmennikova, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, January 25, 2003)
- Russia Invites US to Build Common Missile Defense, - in Russian, (Novosti RBK, January 23, 2003)
Two Tomahawk missiles were successfully launched from a missile tube of USS Florida ballistic missile submarine (which is planned for conversion from SSBN to SSGN along with three other Ohio-class subs), in demonstration and validation (DEMVAL) tests in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of western Florida. The test was followed by Giant Shadow experimental anti-terrorist exercises that involve clandestine debarkation of Navy SEALs from the USS Florida.
- Former missile sub, SEALs combine in experimental anti-terrorism exercise, (by Sonja Barisic, Associated Press, Sunday, Jan 26, 1:31 PM ET)
- Successful Tomahawk Launch Aboard Florida Precursor to SSGN Conversion Experiment, (NAVSEA News Wire, January 17, 2003)
- Giant Shadow Experiment, (GlobalSecurity.Org, January, 2003)
Last week, Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies released a four-volume assessment of global efforts to secure former Soviet nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. In particular, experts from the US, EU, Russia and Japan suggest that Russia doubles the amount of low-enriched uranium exported under "Megatons to Megawatts" program in a year. Minatom officials question advisability of this step:
- Good Intentions..., - in Russian, (Nuclear.Ru, January 27, 2003)
- New Report Offers Plan for Future G-8 Efforts, (by Bryan Bender, Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, January 22, 2003)
- Protecting against the Spread of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons, (Ed. by Robert J. Einhorn and Michele A. Flournoy, Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 2003)
Reports by Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei were submitted in the UNSC on Monday. They concerned the four dossiers: nuclear, chemical, biological and missile ones. Russian MFA expressed a hope that UNMOVIC and IAEA experts will continue effective work. President Bush declared last night in his annual State of the Union message that Saddam Hussein had missed his "final chance" by showing contempt for U.N. weapons inspections:
- Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Answers a Russian Media Question with Regard to President George W. Bush's State of the Union Speech in the US Congress, January 29, 2003
- State of the Union Address by President George W. Bush, The U.S. Capitol, January 28, 2003
- Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Ivanov Holds Talks with Organization of the Islamic Conference Secretary General Abdelouahed Belkeziz, January 28, 2003
- Transcript of Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Sergei Lavrov's Live Interview on the Vremya (Channel One) Television Program Regarding the Outcome of the UN Security Council Meeting Held on January 27, 2003
- Transcript of Interview Granted by Russia's Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov to NBC Moscow, January 27, 2003
- Secretary Colin L. Powell Briefing on the Iraq Weapon's Inspectors' 60-Day Report: Iraqi Non-cooperation and Defiance of the UN, Washington, DC, January 27, 2003
- The Status of Nuclear Inspections in Iraq, (Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the IAEA, Statement to the United Nations Security Council, New York, January 27, 2003)
- An Update On Inspection, (Dr. Hans Blix, Executive Chairman of UNMOVIC, Statement to the United Nations Security Council, New York, January 27, 2003)
- Text of Secretary of State Colin Powell's Speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 26, 2003
- Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz Speech on Iraq Disarmament at the Council for Foreign Relations in New York City, Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003
- What Does Disarmament Look Like?, The White House, January 2003
See also most recent media comments on the Iraq situation:
- Bush Stiffens Warning of War With Iraq, Says Hussein Missed His 'Final Chance', (by Dana Milbank and Mike Allen, The Washington Post, Wednesday, January 29, 2003; Page A01)
- Powell Will Press U.S. Case in U.N. Council Next Week, (by Steven R. Weisman and Julia Preston, The New York Times, January 29, 2003)
- Powell to Tell U.N. Council of Arms Evidence, (by Glenn Kessler and Karen DeYoung, The Washington Post, Wednesday, January 29, 2003; Page A01)
- U.N. Finds No Proof of Nuclear Program, (by Colum Lynch, The Washington Post, Wednesday, January 29, 2003; Page A13)
- Russia's Putin Hints at Tougher Iraq Line, (by Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press, Tuesday, January 28, 2003; 5:13 PM)
- No War, No Forgiveness, - in Russian, (by Steven Miller, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 29, 2003)
- Turn On Electricity Sooner, - in Russian, (by Aleksandr Samohotkin, Vremya Novostei, January 29, 2003)
- U.S. Situation Requires a War, - in Russian, (by Sergei Strokan' and Pavel Korobov, Kommersant, January 29, 2003)
- Bush Urges Preparations for a War, - in Russian, (by Vasilii Sergeyev, Gazeta.Ru, January 29, 2003)
- Bush Appeals to a Country, - in Russian, (by Arthur Blinov, Vremya MN, January 29, 2003)
- Bush Expected to Expand Nonproliferation Programs, (by Bryan Bender, Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, January 28, 2003)
- United States Prepares to Present Intelligence Information, (Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, January 28, 2003)
- New York Split, - in Russian, (by Andrei Zlobin, Katerina Labetskaya, Vremya Novostei, January 28, 2003)
- Resistance Intensifies, - in Russian, (by Vasiliy Safronchuk, Sovetskaya Rossiya, January 28, 2003)
As long as Iraq is contained and UN weapons inspections continue unfettered there is no justification for a US-led invasion, according report by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace released last week.
- Weapons Inspectors Need More Time, (by George Perkovich, Newsday, January 28, 2003)
- Report Calls Invasion Unjustified If Inspections Are Incomplete, (by David McGlinchey, Global Security Newswire, Monday, January 27, 2003)
- Iraq What Next?, (Carnegie Endowment for Peace, January 27, 2003)
The United States is contemplating using nuclear weapons in a potential conflict with Iraq, the nuclear option is being considered to destroy deeply buried Iraqi targets that might be impervious to conventional weapons, according to analyst William Arkin writing in the Los Angeles Times:
- Our Nuclear Talk Gravely Imperils Us, (by Edward M. Kennedy, Los Angeles Times, January 29, 2003)
- As U.S. Girds for Worst in Iraq, Retaliation Isn't Clear-Cut Issue, (by Bradley Graham, The Washington Post, Wednesday, January 29, 2003; Page A14)
- U.S. Officials Consider Nuclear Force in Iraq, (Global Security Newswire, Monday, January 27, 2003)
- Administration Won't Bar Use Of Nuclear Weapons, (by Ellen Sorokin, The Washington Times, January 27, 2003)
- The Nuclear Option in Iraq, (by William M. Arkin, Los Angeles Times, January 26, 2003)
North Korea has insisted that only talks with the United States can solve a nuclear standoff and rejected involving other countries:
- S. Korean Delegation's Peace Bid Founders, (by Associated Press, The Washington Post, Wednesday, January 29, 2003; Page A17)
- Will the Nuclear Knot Be Undone?, - in Russian, (by Vladimir Frolov, Vremya MN, January 29, 2003)
- Report: North Korea Rejects Multilateral Talks, (by Reuters, Tuesday, January 28, 2003; 9:37 AM)
- Pyongyang hostile to U.N. mediation, (by Joseph Coleman, The Washington Times, January 28, 2003)
- South Korea Asks IAEA to Delay Meeting, (Global Security Newswire, Monday, January 27, 2003)
- Transcript of Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Losyukov Remarks on the Pervy Kanal Television Company's Vladimir Pozner Program "Vremena," Moscow, January 25, 2003
- Transcript of Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Losyukov Remarks at press conference following his visit to Pyongyang (in Russian), Moscow, January 24, 2003
"...A Hollywood thriller happened in Kyrgyzstan: six gunmen in camouflage and black masks stormed into territory of chemical and metallurgical complex in Orlovka, and neutralized security guards in seconds. Happy end was not to follow since the men took with them 23 cases containing almost 500 kg of europium oxide -- a strategic material used to manufacture rods for nuclear reactors at nuclear power plants..." (Atomic Bomb Being Made by... Terrorists, - in Russian, by Georgy Zotov, Argumenty i Fakty, January 22, 2003)
January 21, 2003
The first this year meeting of the State Duma Defence Committee created a sensation. The committee recommended State Duma to decline the draft bill on ratification of the U.S.-Russia Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty introduced by president Putin. "...It is unclear what has motivated the decision of the Duma members", - Eugene Miasnikov, the Editor of the STAR site, said in an interview to Izvestia: "...I doubt, that this is a serious strategic game, more likely - just tactical maneuvers..." (ABC of Instrument of Ratification, - in Russian, by Dmitri Litovkin, Izvestiya, January 21, 2003). See also:
- Russian MFA Press Release On First Meeting of Russian-American Working Group of Government Experts on Strategic Offensive Potentials, January 20, 2003
- "Putin Comes and Go. People Need to Live", - in Russian, (by Anton Brazhitsa, Boris Sapozhnikov, Gazeta.ru, January 17, 2003)
- Moscow Might Wait for Washington to Ratify Moscow Treaty, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 16, 2003)
- Interview With First Deputy Foreign Minister Of Russia Vyacheslav Trubnikov To Itar-Tass News Agency, January 15, 2003
and our special section on Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions. Status, Comments, Expert Opinions
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that Moscow has received with satisfaction news of the signing of a waiver on January 14 by US President George W. Bush that permits Congress to release funds under the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (known as the "Nunn-Lugar Program") for 2003:
- Statement By Alexander Yakovenko, The Official Spokesman Of Russia's Ministry Of Foreign Affairs In Connection with Reopening of Nunn-Lugar Program, 16 January , 2003
- Lawmaker Calls for Fewer CTR Restrictions, (by Bryan Bender, Global Security Newswire, Friday, January 17, 2003)
- Bush Releases Money To Destroy Russian Arms, (by Maura Reynolds, Los Angeles Times, January 15, 2003)
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov visited Don-2N radar located in Sofrino near Moscow and made some sensational statements. He said that Russia will develop missile defense systems. Speaking on possible US-Russian cooperation on missile defenses, he stressed that "...such cooperation is theoretically possible if it does not threaten our national interests...", it "...must be built on a legal basis, and missile defense systems must not be aimed against each other..." In his comments of the Russian Minister's statement, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that "the Russians look at the world, just like we do, and they see countries that are developing longer-range ballistic missiles. They see the proliferation of chemical and biological and nuclear capabilities to countries that it is extremely worrisome that they have them":
- Common Sense Plus Technology, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Bogatyrev, Krasnaya Zvezda, January 17, 2003)
- Moscow to Develop National Defense System, Ivanov Says, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 16, 2003)
- At the Front Line -- in Sofrino, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Bogatyrev, Alexandr Dolinin, Krasnaya Zvezda, January 16, 2003)
- DoD News Briefing - Secretary Rumsfeld And Gen. Myers, DoD, January 15, 2003
- Like Roomies. Missile Defense Should be Shared, - in Russian, (by Andrei Zaitsev, Izvestia, January 14, 2003)
Russian MFA expressed concerns over Britain's consent for the US to use the Ballistic Missile Early Warning Station located in its territory on Fylingdales Moor in the structure of a global missile defense:
- Russian MFA Press Release On Britain's Consent To Use By United States Of Fylingdales Moor Radar Station, January 17, 2003)
- British Legislators Decry Support for U.S. Radar Upgrade, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 16, 2003)
- Hoon hit by backbench fury over initial backing for 'son of Star Wars' shield, (by Ben Russell, Independent, January 16, 2003)
- British Defense Minister Supports U.S. Radar Request, (by David Ruppe, Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, January 15, 2003)
Recent issue of Arms Control Today (January-February, 2003) runs:
- Beyond the 'Axis of Evil', (by Daryl G. Kimball)
- Confusing Ends and Means: The Doctrine of Coercive Pre-emption, (by John Steinbruner)
- A Strategy for Defusing The North Korean Nuclear Crisis, (by Joel S. Wit)
- How U.S. Strategic Policy Is Changing China’s Nuclear Plans, (by Joanne Tompkins)
- North Korea Quits NPT, Says It Will Restart Nuclear Facilities, (by Paul Kerr)
- Bush to Deploy 'Modest' Missile Defense in 2004, (by Wade Boese)
- Code of Conduct Aims to Stop Ballistic Missile Proliferation, (by Paul Kerr)
- Bush Administration Releases Strategy on WMD Threat, (by Wade Boese)
- IAEA to Visit Two 'Secret' Nuclear Sites in Iran, (by Paul Kerr)
- Russia Agrees to Use U.S. MOX Facility Design, (by Christine Kucia)
- Russia, Iran Finalize Spent Fuel Agreement, (by Christine Kucia)
- Latest Ground-Based Missile Defense Test Fails, (by Wade Boese)
Siegfried Hecker, former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory believes that the United States may have no choice but to restart nuclear testing soon: Nuclear Testing May Need to Resume Soon, Official Says, (by Bryan Bender, Global Security Newswire, Friday, January 17, 2003)
Russian MFA stated that "...the worn-out 'concerns' noted in a recent CIA report "...over the alleged leaks from Russia of sensitive technologies... are totally groundless: Russian MFA Press Release Regarding CIA Report On Nonproliferation Problems, January 15, 2003)
January 16, the first meeting of the Russian-Pakistani Consultative Group for Strategic Stability took place in Moscow:
- Russian Deputy Minister Of Foreign Affairs Georgy Mamedov Statement To The Russian Media, Moscow, January 16, 2003
- Russian MFA Press Release On Meeting Of Russian-Pakistani Consultative Group For Strategic Stability, January 16, 2003
International community keeps trying to resolve the North Korean crisis by diplomatic means. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov met on Monday with Northern leader Kim Jong Il. US media reported that SVR, Russian intelligence agency, conducted a clandestine operation together with CIA against North Korea in 1990's.
- Diplomacy Should Resolve Korean Crisis, Powell Says, (by Steven R. Weisman, The New York Times, January 21, 2003)
- U.S. Fears N. Korea Weapons Expansion, (by John J. Lumpkin, Associated Press, Tuesday, January 21, 2003; 1:34 AM)
- Russian Envoy, N. Korean Leader Meet in Effort to Resolve Crisis, (by Doug Struck, The Washington Post, Tuesday, January 21, 2003; Page A13)
- Kim Jong Il Neglected Leakage of Information on Russia, - in Russian, (by Andrei Ivanov, Kommersant, January 21, 2003)
- Pyongyang Has Switched to Washington, - in Russian, (by Yevgeni Verlin, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 21, 2003)
- Russia Helped U.S. Spy Inside N. Korea, (by James Risen, The New York Times, January 20, 2003)
- Preventing the Next North Korea, (The New York Times, January 19, 2003)
- The Crisis Last Time, (by William J. Perry and Ashton B. Carter, The New York Times, January 19, 2003)
- To Choose a Mediator, - in Russian, (by Nikolai Khorunzhii, Izvestia, January 18, 2003)
- Nuclear Fence Around Pyongyang, - in Russian, (by Pyotr Titov, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, January 17, 2003)
- Korea Follies, (by Charles Krauthammer, The Washington Post, Friday, January 17, 2003; Page A23)
- No More Nuclear Blackmail, (by Vladimir Frolov, The Moscow Times, Thursday, January, 16, 2003, Page 8)
- Russian MFA Press Release On International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei's Visit to Moscow, January 16, 2003
- Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answers a Question from RosBiznesConsulting News Agency About the Proposals of Ex-US President Jimmy Carter for a Settlement of the Korean Problem, January 15, 2003
- Transcript of Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov's Remarks at the Joint Press Conference on the Results of the Talks with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, Moscow, January 15, 2002
- Back to the Framework, (by Jimmy Carter, The Washington Post, Tuesday, January 14, 2003; Page A19)
- Forcing the North Korean Nuclear Genie Back into the Bottle: Can It Be Done?, (by Fred McGoldrick, Nautilus Institute, January 2003)
American experts are concerned about possible ties between al Qaeda and North Korea: North Korea Weapons A 'Nuclear Nightmare', (by Michele Lerner, The Washington Times, January 17, 2003)
The US intensifies pressure on the top two UN arms inspectors. Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei were firm that it is unnecessary to use force against Iraq.
- UN Inspectors Seized Excise for War, - in Russian, (by Mikhail Zygar, - Kommersant, January 20, 2003)
- Iraq Discloses 4 Warheads in What Arms Inspector Calls 'Constructive' Talks, (by Ian Fisher, The New York Times, January 20, 2003)
- How Much Proof in Iraq Is Enough for a Strike? (by Michael R. Gordon, The New York Times, January 18, 2003)
- UNMOVIC Spokesman Ewen Buchanan Interview, (Global Security Newswire, Friday, January 17, 2003)
According to a Financial Times article, Russian MFA confused international community by blaming Israeli media for publication of allegedly false information on Moscow's plans to build two nuclear power plants in Syria:
- Russia denies nuclear deal with Syria, (by Andrew Jack, The Financial Times, January 17, 2003)
- Russia in talks to build Syrian nuclear reactor, (by Andrew Jack, Stephen Fidler, Roula Khalaf, The Financial Times, January 16, 2003)
- Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answers a Russian and Foreign Media Question Regarding Israeli Media Reports About Construction of Two Nuclear Power Plants in Syria, January 15, 2003
- Russia To Encircle Israel with Arab Nuclear Power Plants, - in Russian, (by Galina Kuzina, Alexandr Kornilov, Gazeta.ru, January 14, 2003)
U.S. officials and private experts are increasingly concerned that Iran could acquire nuclear arsenal: U.S. Seeking to Avoid a Third Nuclear Confrontation, (by Bryan Bender, Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, January 15, 2003)
Nuclear powers expressed support for creation of a Central Asian weapon-free zone: Central Asian Treaty Talks Planned for March, (by Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, January 15, 2003)
In January, 2003 issue of Bulleten po Atomnoi Energii (Bulletin on Atomic Energy) (PDF file, in Russian):
- Nuclear Arithmetic. Press plays up as if importing spent nuclear fuel we turn the country into a dump ground, (by Konstantin Volkov)
- To I.V.Kurchatov's 100 Anniversary -- memoirs of Yevgeni Velikhov, Anatoli Alexandrov, Boris Nikipelov,
- Prospects of Nuclear Power Plants with VVER Reactors, (by Viktor Sidorenko, Vsevolod Voznesenski, Andrei Malyshev, et. al.)
- Legal Support for Handling of Spent Nuclear Fuel, (by Vladimir Grachev)
- Semipalatinsk Test Ground: from Epicenter of Nuclear Tests to Epicenter of Peace, (by Nikolai Voloshin, Anatoli Matuschenko, Vladimir Krasnov, Yuri Naglis)
Several villages in Altaiski Krai suffered from rocket fuel: But Then We Build Missiles, - in Russian, (by Maria Zolotaikina, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 20, 2003)
Minatom launched web site of its Situation Crisis Center. The site's goal is to inform the public on current state, problems and prospects of atomic industry in a timely manner: Minatom Maps are Uncovered, - in Russian, (Izvestia, January 20, 2003)
January 14, 2003
Transcript of a lecture on Soviet (Russian)-US Arms Control Agreements by Dr. Viktor Koltunov, Maj.-Gen. (Ret.), former negotiator of the INF and START Treaties, is now available on-line (in Russian). The lecture was given on October 25, 2002 at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology within Non-proliferation and Reduction of Weapons of Mass Destruction Regime and National Security course offered by our Center."...However, how many of these damned warhead should one have to ensure sufficient retaliation under any conditions? This question is been asked for several decades, and finally the expert community acknowledged the impossibility to define the notion of "unacceptable damage"..." (Opinion: Probability, That Deters, - in Russian, by Valery Yarynich, January 9, 2003) - a comment to Sergey Kreidin's article Anti-Missile Fallacies, - in Russian, (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, July 26, 2002)
Strategic Rocket Forces plan to launch at least five ICBMs in 2003: Rocketeers to Test Themselves, - in Russian, (ITAR-TASS, Vremya MN, January 9, 2003)
The Government of the Russian Federation has taken a decision on the steady financing of the projects under G8 Global Partnership agreement against the spread of weapons and materials of mass destruction. In 2003, the allocation of more than 204 million US dollars is envisaged for top-priority projects, within the next ten years it will amount to at least 2 billion US dollars: Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answers Russian Media Questions About the G8 Global Partnership Agreement Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction, Reached at Kananaskis, January 10, 2003.
In his interview with Moskovskiy Komsomolets Col. Gen. Yuriy Baluyevskiy, First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff called upon maximum efforts to be taken for ratification of the SORT treaty: General's Horoscope, - in Russian, (by Yulia Kalinina, Moskovskiy Komsomolets, January 9, 2003). See also Col. Baluyevskiy's interview published in a recent issue of PIR-Center's Yaderny Control Digest (a PDF file).
This issue of Yaderny Kontrol Digest (winter-spring 2003) also runs:
- Editorial. Good News from Kananaskis
- US Nuclear Policy and the Future of Arms Control, (by Jon B. Wolfsthal)
- Sam Nunn: United States and Russia Must Take the Lead in Creating a Global Coalition Against Catastrophic Terrorism
- Myanmar Nuclear Future (by Anatoly Luchin)
- The Different Faces of Nuclear Terrorism, (by William C. Potter and Nicolas Florquin)
- Iran's Nuclear Program in the Russia-US Relations, (by Anton Khlopkov)
US Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow said that there are no limits for cooperation between the two countries on missile defenses, and that the US is seriously eager to do it (Vershbow: Year 2002 Was a Successful one for US-Russian Relations, - in Russian, Interfax, January 8, 2003). Russia expects that this statement will help speed up a favorable American response to the draft proposed by the Russian side of a new political ABM agreement.
- Let's Make Missiles Together, - in Russian, (by Nikolai Poroskov, Vremya Novostey, January 13, 2003)
- Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answers a Question from RosBiznesConsulting News Agency Concerning the US Administration's Statements on Its Wish to Step Up Cooperation with Russia in the Field of Missile Defense, January 9, 2003
- New Missile Defense Deal Proposed, (by The Associated Press, The Moscow Times, Friday, January 10, 2003. Page 3)
- Bush and Putin Covered by the Same Blanket. By Anti-Nuclear One, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Agamov, Utro.Ru, January 10, 2003)
- U.S. Ambassador Faults Inaction on North Korea, Iran, (Global Security Newswire, Friday, January 10, 2003)
The costs of a layered US national missile defense system could reach up to $1.2 trillion, according to a recent report by U.S. NGOs (PDF). Another study, published by CBO concludes that, National Missile Defense costs, however, could jump by as much as 40% from projected figures:
- Defense Department Spending Could Skyrocket, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 9, 2003)
- The Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans, (Congressional Budget Office, January 2003)
- U.S. Missile Defenses System Could Cost $1.2 Trillion, Critics Say, (Global Security Newswire, Monday, January 6, 2003)
- The Full Costs of Ballistic Missile Defense, (ed. by Richard F.Kaufman, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, January 2003)
A Missile Defense Agency official said that the Agency is planning to skip the next two scheduled flight tests of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense interceptor, and will not attempt any test interceptions until this autumn: Pentagon Plans No Intercept Testing Until Autumn, (by David Ruppe, Global Security Newswire, Monday, January 7, 2003)
Opponents of the US withdrawal from the 1972 ABM treaty in the Congress keep trying to contest president Bush's decision in court: House Democrat May Appeal Lawsuit Dismissal, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 9, 2003)
President George Bush, hijacked by hardliners in his administration, is setting the world on a course towards nuclear disaster, the 1995 Nobel peace laureate, Professor Sir Joseph Rotblat said last week:
- Selective Bludgeon, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Bratersky and Dmitriy Litovkin, Izvestia.ru, January 11, 2003)
- World on path to disaster, bomb pioneer warns, (by David Hearst, The Guardian, Thursday January 9, 2003)
Among the articles published in the recent issue of Disarmament Diplomacy (December-January 2002/2003):
- Stuck on the Launch Pad? The Ballistic Missile Code of Conduct Opens for Business, (by Mark Smith)
- Anti-Satellite Capabilities of Planned US Missile Defence Systems, (by David Wright and Laura Grego)
- Anxiety, Hope and Cynicism: The 2002 UN First Committee, (by Fiona Simpson)
- Anniversary of Cuban Missile Crisis Fuels Controversy over US Policy
- Calm After ABM Storm as US, Russia Stress Missile Defence Cooperation
North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and threatened international community to revise its moratorium on ballistic missile tests. The US tries to find a diplomatic solution to this crisis with mediation by South Korea, Japan and Russia. Russian MFA announced that the basic elements of the package solution are already beginning to emerge.
- Aides Declare U.S. 'Willing to Talk' in Korea Dispute, (by Howard W. French, The New York Times, January 14, 2003)
- U.S. Says No New Tack on N. Korea, (by Glenn Kessler, The Washington Post, Tuesday, January 14, 2003; Page A14)
- More Scary than a Nuclear War, - in Russian, (by Katerina Labetskaya and Valentina Kulyabina, Vremya Novostei, January 14, 2003)
- Peninsula of Opposition, - in Russian, (by Vladimir Kuzar, Krasnaya Zvezda, January 14, 2003)
- A Small Carrot for a Great Leader, - in Russian, (by Natalia Babasyan, Izvestiya, January 14, 2003)
- Pyongyang Threatens to Resume Missile Tests, (Global Security Newswire, Monday, January 13, 2003)
- Interview with South Korea’s U.S. Ambassador Yang Sung-chul, (Global Security Newswire, Monday, January 13, 2003)
- Koreans Will Retaliate With a "Sea of Fire", - in Russian, (by Gennadiy Sysoyev, Kommersant, January 13, 2003)
- Moscow Does Not Believe in Pyongyang's Atomic Bomb, - in Russian, (by Andrei Vaganov, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 13, 2003)
- North Korea Defeated US, - in Russian, (by Ksenia Solyanskaya, Gazeta.ru, January 13, 2003)
- Clouds Darken Over Korea, - in Russian, (by Vasili Safronchuk, Sovetskaya Rossiya, January 13, 2003)
- Russia Proposes Package, Not Pressure, (by Sarah Karush, The Moscow Times, January 13, 2003)
- Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answers a Russian/Foreign Media Question About a Package Solution to the Korean Problem, January 12, 2003
- Moscow Is Negotiating With North Korean Officials in Quiet Effort to Defuse Tensions, (by Steven Lee Myers, The New York Times, January 12, 2003)
- Remarks and Replies to Questions by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at Joint Press Conference Following Russian-Japanese Talks, January 11, 2003
- North Korea: South Korean Perspective, (an Interview with Paul Kim, Former Director of the Korean-American Peace Institute Friday, Jan. 10, 2003; 1 p.m. ET)
- Statement By The Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Of The Russian Federation Regarding the DPRK's Intention to Withdraw from the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 10 January , 2003
- Q&A: What Does North Korea Want?, (Council on Foreign Relations, January 10, 2003)
- Forcing the North Korean Nuclear Genie Back into the Bottle: Can It Be Done?, (by Fred McGoldrick, Nautilus Institute, January 2003)
- Ten Questions on North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Program, (by Dipali Mukhopadhyay and Jon Wolfsthal, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tuesday, January 07, 2003)
- Russian MFA Press Release On the IAEA Board of Governors' Resolution Concerning Implementation of the Agreement Between the IAEA and the DPRK, 6 January , 2003
- IAEA Board of Governors Adopts Resolution on Safeguards in North Korea, (IAEA Media Advisory, January 6, 2003)
- Arms Control Association Calls on White House to Pursue North Korean Disarmament Through Pragmatic Engagement, (Statement by Executive Director Daryl G. Kimball, January 3, 2003)
Dr. Hans Blix, Executive Chairman of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) speaking before the UN Security Council stated that so far UNMOVIC did not reveal any substantial violations of the UN resolutions by Iraq:
- Inspectors Tired to Play Mum, - in Russian, (by Sergey Loiko, Novaya Gazeta, January 13, 2003)
- Notes for Briefing the Security Council, (by Dr. Hans Blix, Executive Chairman, UNMOVIC, 9 January 2003)
The CIA released unclassified version of its latest assessment of global WMD acquisition efforts that threaten the US:
- CIA Issues Latest Global WMD Threat Assessment, (by David Ruppe, Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, January 8, 2003)
- Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, (Central Intelligence Agency, January 7, 2003)
US defence officials say they have concluded that Russia has supplied Iran with equipment and expertise to build two facilities that American intelligence agencies allege are part of a nuclear weapons programme: US Intelligence Says Russia Helping Iran in Nuclear Arms Effort, (by Charles Digges, Bellona, January 7, 2003)
Thursday, India tested a variant of Agni-1 ballistic missile. Wednesday, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf attended delivery ceremony of a new medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5) nuclear-capable ballistic missile:
- United States, United Kingdom Criticize Missile Test, (Global Security Newswire, Friday, January 10, 2003)
- Whose Missile is More Fearful?, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Lomanov, Vremya Novostei, January 10, 2003)
- Army Receives Nuclear-Capable Ghauri Ballistic Missile, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 9, 2003)
- New Delhi Successfully Tests Agni 1 Missile, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 9, 2003)
- India Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Missile, (by The Associated Press, The Washington Post, Thursday, January 9, 2003; Page A16)
- India Establishes a Nuclear Command System, (by Reuters, January 5, 2003)
Roberto Amaral, the newly appointed minister of science and technology of Brazil, said his country should acquire the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon. The statement contradicts Brazil's international obligations: Brazil Needs A-Bomb Ability, Aide Says, Setting Off Furor, (by Larry Rohter, The New York Times, January 9, 2003)
Media stresses the necessity to give more attention to security of nuclear objects, which can be targeted by terrorist attacks:
- On Nuclear Threat, Wake Up and Pay Up, (by Matt Bivens, The Moscow Times, January 13, 2003)
- Russia: New Concerns. Chechen Guerillas Probably Want to Get Nuclear Weapons, - in Russian, (ITAR-TASS, Vremya MN, January 9, 2003)
Mayak Plant (Ozersk, Chelyabinsk Oblast), that reprocesses spent nuclear fuel lost its license for operation. All parts of the reprocessing facility are stopped now:
- Nuclear Plant Shut Over Fears of Leak, (by Reuters, The Moscow Times, January 14, 2002)
- "Mayak" Beacons No Longer, - in Russian, (by Sergey Ivashko, Gazeta.ru, January 10, 2003)
Bellona believes that the MOX approach and imports of spent nuclear fuel have the potential to turn Russia into a nuclear dumping ground: Mixed Oxide Fuel: Revitalizing the Reprocessing Industry, (by Zackary Moss, Bellona, January 7, 2003)
Sunday was 100th anniversary of Academician I.V. Kurchatov, the head of the Soviet nuclear program: Main Author of Parity, - in Russian, (by Anatoli Dokuchayev, Krasnaya Zvezda, January 11, 2003)
January 5, 2003
On the eve of the New Year Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Georgy Mamedov, who oversees strategic stability issues, commented Ministry's policy on the most topical problems: There Should Be No Provoking an Arms Race, (by Katerina Labetskaya, Vremya Novostei, December 24, 2002)Taman Missile Division (located in Tatischevo, Saratov Oblast) carries out intensive work to prepare entry into combat duty of the fourth regiment armed by Topol-M ICBM in 2003: December-Tested "Topols", - in Russian, (by Alexandr Dolinin, Krasnaya Zvezda, December 26, 2002)
Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called the US and NATO countries upon cooperation in the field of a stabilizing theater missile defense both on a bilateral and on a multilateral basis, which should be carried out with due consideration for the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations and should not be directed against any third countries (Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answers Russian Media Question Regarding Drawing Other Countries into US Efforts for the Establishment of a Global Missile Defense System, December 24, 2002)
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology is looking into accusations that its premier laboratory lied to cover up serious problems with the technology at the heart of the administration's proposed antimissile defense system. The university was prodded to act by Theodore A. Postol, a tenured MIT physicist in security studies and a prominent critic of the antimissile plan:
- MIT Looks Into Possible Missile Defense Study Cover-Up, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 2, 2002)
- M.I.T. Studies Accusations of Lies and Cover-Up of Flaws in Antimissile System, (by William J. Broad, The New York Times, January 2, 2002)
See also: Missile Plan Faces Obstacles, (by Maura Reynolds, Los Angeles Times, December 24, 2002), and STAR Site's special section Criticism of Missile Defense Programs (in Russian).
A US federal judge dismissed a lawsuit by 32 lawmakers who wanted to stop President Bush's withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The judge ruled that the lawmakers lacked standing to bring the case, and that the withdrawal from the treaty was a political matter, not judicial:
- U.S. Judge Dismisses Congressional Lawsuit, (Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, December 31, 2002)
- Suit Over ABM Pact Withdrawal Dismissed, (by Associated Press, The Washington Post, Tuesday, December 31, 2002; Page A06)
US allies do not unambiguously support Bush administration's decision to step up deployment of missile defenses. Greenland officials believe that US compensation for the operation of American early warning radar at Thule in northwest Greenland are far from adequate:
- Greenlandic Officials Hopeful of U.S. Deal on Thule Base, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, January 2, 2002)
- Missiles Get Closer, - in Russian, (by Nikolai Poroskov, Vremya Novostei, December 24, 2002)
January issue of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists describes the history of B-61 nuclear bombs and its modifications: The B61 Family of Bombs, (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Volume 59, No. 1, January-February, 2003)
After North Korea began restarting its plutonium reactor, expelled the IAEA inspectors, and signaled it may quit the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, the US, South Korea and Russia make steps towards diplomatic solution of the growing crisis:
- S. Korea Works to Broker Nuke Settlement, (by Hans Greimel, Associated Press, Sunday, January 5, 2003; 1:02 AM)
- S. Korea Readies Plan to End Standoff With North, (by Peter S. Goodman, The Washington Post, Sunday, January 5, 2003; Page A15)
- North Korea Issues Warning, and Seoul Seeks Compromise, (by James Brooke, The New York Times, January 5, 2003)
- Incoming South Korean President Working Toward Deal, (Global Security Newswire, Friday, January 3, 2003)
- Outfoxed by North Korea, (by Leon Fuerth, The New York Times, January 1, 2002)
- Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Ivanov Answers a Question from Russian and Foreign Media Regarding the Growth of Tensions Around the Korean Peninsula, December 30, 2002
- Kim Jong Il's Ultimatum, - in Russian, (by Natalia Babasyan, Izvestia, December 30, 2002)
- Pyongyang's Nuclear Strip-tease, - in Russian, (by Yevgueniy Vasilyev, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, December 27, 2002)
- Statement By Alexander Yakovenko, The Official Spokesman Of Russia's Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Regarding US President George W. Bush's Proposal for Cooperation by the United States with Russia and China in Ensuring the Nuclear-Free Status of the Korean Peninsula, December 24, 2002)
- Russian MFA Press Release Regarding DPRK Unilateral Actions Removing IAEA Monitoring Instruments from Its Nuclear Facilities, December 23, 2002
According to a recent RAND Report, the threat of acquisition of nuclear weapons by Persian Gulf countries grows:
- WMD Threat Could Grow in Response to U.S. Policy, RAND Says, (by Brian Bender, Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, December 31, 2002)
- The Persian Gulf in the Coming Decade: Trends, Threats and Opportunities, (by Daniel L. Byman and John R. Wise, RAND Corporation, December 2002)
According to Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev, who visited Iran in the end of December, Tehran and Moscow did not sign an agreement on a plan to return spent fuel to Russia. Rumyantsev said he hopes an agreement will be signed within a month:
- Still No Agreement on Returning Spent Nuclear Fuel to Russia, (Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, December 31, 2002)
- Russia Defends Iran Nuclear Reactor Plan, (by Eric Engleman, The Associated Press, Friday, December 27, 2002; 4:27 PM)
- Nuclear Iran, - in Russian, (by Sergey Leskov, Izvestia.ru, December 26, 2002)
- Russia forges ahead with Iran reactor, (BBC News, December 26, 2002)
- Iran and Russia Sign Accord to Speed Nuclear Power Project, (by Nazila Fathi, The New York Times, December 25, 2002)
- Russia Says to Go Ahead with Iran Nuclear Reactor, (by Parinoosh Arami, Reuters, Wednesday, December 25, 2002; 5:26 PM)
- Rumyantsev's Contradictory Comments on Bushehr SNF Fog Minatom's Intentions, (by Charles Digges, Bellona, December 24, 2002)
India had set up a nuclear weapons command system headed by the prime minister: India Establishes a Nuclear Command System, (by Reuters, January 5, 2003)
In the recent issue of Yaderny Control (November-December, 2002):
- Yury Kirillov: "It's Probably Time to Put Forward the Idea of a Treaty on Nuclear Deterrence Guarantees" (by Ilya Fabrichenkov) -- interview with Col. Gen. Yury Kirillov, head of Pyotr Velikiy Strategic Rocket Forces Military Academy
- Taxation of Funds Provided Under the Framework of US-Russian Cooperation in the Field of Non-proliferation (by Dmitriy Kovchegin)
- New Vector of US-Russian Cooperation in the Field of Non-proliferation: «Project Vinca», (by Mikhail Gerasim)
US nuclear power plant structures that house radioactive materials, such as reactor containment buildings and spent-fuel storage sites, could withstand a terrorist attack involving a hijacked commercial airliner, according to a study released in December by the Nuclear Energy Institute. Independent experts criticized the study for being designed to confirm conclusions predetermined by the nuclear industry:
- Nuclear Plants Can Survive Jetliner Crash, Study Says, (by Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, December 30, 2002)
- Nuclear Plants Are Secure, Study Says, (by John Mintz, The Washington Post, Thursday, December 26, 2002; Page A02)
- Deterring Terrorism: Aircraft Crash Impact Analyses Demonstrate Nuclear Power Plant’s Structural Strength, (Nuclear Energy Institute, December 2002)
Recently declassified documents show that President Nixon ordered US forces into a posture for nuclear conflict in 1969 in a bluff that he hoped would scare the USSR into forcing concessions from North Vietnam:
- Nixon’s nuclear ploy, (by William Burr & Jeffrey Kimball, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Volume 59, No. 1, January-February, 2003)
- Report reveals nuclear bluff by Nixon in '69, (by The Associated Press, The Washington Times, December 26, 2002)
- Nixon Ordered Nuke Alert to Signal USSR, (by Ron Kampeas, The Associated Press, Thursday, December 26, 2002; 8:35 AM)
- Nixon's 'Madman' Plan to Scare Soviets During Vietnam May Have Backfired, (by Associated Press, The Washington Post, Thursday, December 26, 2002; Page A30)
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